Gallium and germanium are used in lots of electronic components. AESA (active electronically scanned array) radars used on modern warships and fighter airplanes can not be made without those metals. China produces some 95% of those available on the global market.
It will take one or two years until the currently available stocks outside of China are diminished. But it takes much longer to open up new mining and processing facilities for replacement of the Chinese production. The processes used therein are quite dirty. A not-in-my-backyard attitude will make any setup of new facilities difficult to pursue.
I love how a lot of people are coping claiming that ThiS wIlL AcTuAlLy HuRt China because all this industry is just going to magically appear somewhere else. Obviously in the long term the west will have no choice but to start creating their own supply chains, however that’s going to take many years to do. Meanwhile, China already has independent end-to-end supply chains and that means Chinese companies will have a huge advantage producing tech products using these rare metals giving China a huge market advantage.
I really hope they become super self sufficient in the coming years and just keep cutting of more and more as the west crumbles apart. I say this as someone from the west that will most likely take a hit from it. At this point though I think a complete collapse of the west is better than trying to live under it.
Yeah same, and it does look like that’s the plan. China is going to ensure that they have supply chains that are either domestic or sourced from friendly countries like Russia that China shares borders with. They’re going to keep investing into BRI and build out infrastructure in these countries exporting their tech there which will stimulate huge amounts of economic growth completely outside western control. This will also help countries become independent of the west cutting off western leeching. I also think that the west imploding would be the best thing for the world at this point.
Not to mention because of the capitalist nature, companies that will be creating these new supply chains will charge exorbitant money for lackluster work leading to even more delays.
Absolutely, the whole chip reshoring is going to end up being a giant money laundering scheme just like Ukraine where oligarchs are going to feast on the subsidies without actually producing much of anything. They’re trying to replicate the success of China’s state investments without having state control over the industry. It can’t work.