I mean Israel bombed Lebanon and a UN peacekeeper died, the causality here isn’t too hard to follow.

yeah same, seems like there’s some hope in France though with the left getting its shit together finally

Europe basically needs to accept the fact that you can’t change geography, and that Russia can’t be dominated by the west. So, the only logical thing to do is to find a mutually acceptable way to coexist. The problem is that people in charge are all ideologues, and admitting they were wrong is going to be the end of their political careers at this point.

I expect that the breaking point will be when Russia wins in Ukraine. The whole policy towards Russia was predicated on the idea that Russia can be subjugated in the end, and that would make all the hardships worth it. Once it becomes clear that Russia won, the recriminations will start in full. People are going to ask what it was all for, and there’s going to be no good answer.

Indeed, my expectation is that the EU is going to fall apart in the end. The people at the centre of EU politics built their entire careers on Russophobia. Their hostility to China is really just an extension of that since they see China as facilitating Russia. Yet, now that the relations with the US are breaking down, and the energy supplies from the Gulf have been cut, there’s simply nowhere else that EU can get energy from. As the economic situation continues to deteriorate, countries will have to decide whether staying in EU is actually worth it in face of the energy crisis.

I suspect the material reality is going to necessitate doing business with China. The US doesn’t really have much to offer at this point.

I guess this is what he meant by joint operation of the strait. 🤣

Yup, and we already saw how vulnerable the US is during the tariff wars.

The fact that even BBC feels the need to talk about it, shows how effective Iranian media game is. :)

The neat part here is that the energy shock hasn’t actually hit yet because tankers move at around the speed of a bicycle. The ones that left before the strait was closed are still on route. When the oil and gas they carry is gone and the next shipment fails to arrive is when real fun starts at the pump.

China is just playing factorio IRL

Seems that even France wasn’t confident they’d get their gold back. What they actually did was sell the gold in the fed and bought new gold in Europe.

My bet is that it’ll restart before the two weeks are up. Lebanon is being bombed right now, and Iran is closing Hormuz in response.

lol yeah

Oman followed the whole do nothing, win approach here. :)

Yeah, I laughed at that too. It’s pretty obvious Iran isn’t going to collect USD here. It’s basically a cope article trying to paint a narrative where the US isn’t a total loser. As far as the ceasefire goes, I imagine Iranians are smart enough to realize they can’t trust Americans. If they’re agreeing to it, then it means they’re going to use that time to their own advantage too. For example, they can probably get more supplies from China and Russia, improve their AD based on what they’ve learned, and so on. The damage that was done to US infrastructure can’t be repaired in a few weeks nor can the weapon stocks be replenished, so it’s not like the US will be in a significantly better position by then.

welcome comrade

Indeed, and I really appreciate being able to have productive discussions with people where everybody just wants to learn and understand things better rather than score internet points. I find most online spaces encourage people to act in performative fashion because they’re based on engagement farming. Here people just want to have a normal human conversation about subjects they have interest in.

Lemmygrad has been great for my mental health as well. Just being able to interact with people who broadly share your world view is incredibly helpful. You can disagree, but you have a shared framework where you can talk through these disagreements and come to an understanding. When you’re talking to people in the liberal mainstream, the world view is so divergent that you just end up talking past each other. I find there’s a mental taxing to living in a society where your views significantly diverge from the mainstream. While I don’t feel personally discriminated against, I have to run a constant mental filter in social situations whenever a political topic comes up. It’s incredibly exhausting because you end up feeling like you’re an alien. You’re speaking the same language, but have a completely different understanding of the world. I can only imagine how much worse it is living in a society like Germany that’s now hysterical in regards to Russia.

Yup, which is really the only sensible way to divest from the US. They just sold off whatever they supposedly had in US vaults, and will buy gold they can get their hands on.