🚨 This week’s Opinium poll for @ObserverUK.

Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points.

Labour 44% (+3)

Conservatives 26% (-3)

Lib Dems 8% (-3)

SNP 2% (-1)

Green 7% (n/c)

Reform UK 10% (+3)

  • that_ginger_one@feddit.ukOPEnglish
    2·
    1 year ago

    Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 26.0% 181
    LAB 44.0% 402
    LD 8.0% 28
    REFUK 10.0% 0
    Green 7.0% 1
    SNP 2% 13
    PC 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 44.7% 375 26.0% 6 234 -228 147
    LAB 33.0% 198 44.0% 262 0 +262 460
    LIB 11.8% 8 8% 6 2 +4 12
    Reform 2.1% 0 10% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 4.0% 48 2% 0 39 -39 9
    PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
    Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
    N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    Scotland EC Break-Down

    Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
    19% 34% 1% 6% 12% 28%

    1% for the Libs in Scotland is 100% sampling error, they had just 1 person in 126 in Scotland go for the Lib Dems, so major dose of salt…