Found some better data than just R v. D.
In 2023 Pew has 33% of Republicans identifying as conservative and 25% of Democrats identifying as moderate or conservative, so Americans are somewhere between 33% and 58% conservative. Conversely, Americans are somewhere between 23% and 37% liberal.
I think you’ve vastly underestimated the number of conservative Americans.
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Who is the Dick Cheney/Liz Cheney constituency though? Whose opinion will be swayed by the former VP of a deeply unpopular administration at its end? Or by a former Congresswoman with a infamous last name?
This is a nice-to-have for Democrats, but is it actually moving the needle with voters? Is it actually changing minds or increasing turnout? Harris and her advisors certainly think so, she’s out there campaigning with Cheney actively, but where is the movement in the numbers, cause I’m not seeing it.
Energize the fucking progressives.
Yes. She could be capitalizing on popular progressive ideas, like healthcare or lowering grocery prices. These ideas have traction with groups beyond just leftists. She could have run an Obama style campaign, rather than be Biden 2.0. Instead we get Cheneys and “opportunity economy” for small business owners.
There are far more progressives than there are conservatives.
Doubt. Gallup has 48% of Americans identifying has Republican or Republican leaning. Unless you’re telling me that self identifying Republicans are not conservative, but are in fact made up of mostly “moderates” or secret progressives, I don’t know how else you came to this conclusion.
There might even be more progressives than there are moderates.
Also doubt. Where’s the data on this?
What’s the deal with the smallest of marginalized groups? They weren’t important before, why do I have to care about them now? /s
That’s a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it.
My brother in anti-Trumpism, the only spin here is yours in saying her lead is comfortable.
Your original OpEd focused on national polling, so that’s what I responded to. But yes, ignore the national polling, focus on the swing states, the electoral college is what counts.
From the same WaPo article as your picture is this swing state focused chart:
It shows the 2020 polling error, which was largely in Trump’s favor in swing states (other than GA). If the same polling error still exists now in 2024, all that comfort disappears. The polling error was even greater in Trump’s favor in 2016, however was in Obama’s favor in 2012.
The point not being that Trump will outperform the polls this time, but that margins of error matter, and the reality could swing either way. With polling in so many states being within the margins, we’re likely seeing the closest election of our lifetimes.
And all this isn’t meant to be doom and gloom, but I ain’t going into this election with Clinton levels of comfort, again. You’re absolutely right on the game plan though. If you live in any of these states, your vote this time will likely be more consequential than it ever will be.
Just two days out he even had her probability of winning at just 64.2%, still better odds than what we’re seeing for Harris right now. And you’re right, he was the only reputable poll aggregator who was making downward adjustments of that magnitude, that late in the race.
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators’ judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.
From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her “a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight.”
Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.
So they did publish the name of a Neo-Nazi identified on the boat with the Nazi flags, who’s the founder of a Neo-Nazi group.
But going as far as to say these known Neo-Nazis are not antifa would be too far.
Cause Neo-Nazis are so often also antifascist…
Seems the Mike Pillows dog whistle pricing reached its intended audience too.
His motives are still “under investigation”.
His political activities include social media comments that “appear to reflect antisemitic and anti-immigration themes” and “espouse political violence”. Pretty shit political beliefs, if you want to call them that.
I miss sanity in politics.
Was shit perfect? Fuck no, but there was comfort in appearance of civilized debate. You could disagree with a politician, family member, or even stranger without calling their entire world view into question. I can remember when we agreed on the facts, and just disagreed on whose solution was best to fix the problem.
I’m too old for this shit.
That would require good governance, appropriate oversight, and consumer activism. Unfortunately Florida man has no interest in these things.
Endless daily headlines, stupid shit said hourly, think of all the coverage, all the outrage, all the clicks! Who needs democracy anyways if we’ve got ad revenue?
You forgot the part where they were literally given a pandemic playbook and they choose to actively ignore its existence, with some republicans even claiming it didn’t exist.
As someone old enough to play Grand Theft Auto Vice City, I can confirm Florida has a larger Haitian population than any other state.
What you just described is basically a statistical tie and worse odds than what 538 (regardless of it no longer being Nate Silver’s original model) gave Hillary to win in 2016.
You don’t deserve these down votes.
It’s not just that Democrats need to win big to shut the other side up, they need to win big just to overcome their inherent disadvantage in the electoral college.
With Kamala sitting around 2.2% nationally on average, being within the margin of error of the states she needs to win, and her momentum seemingly stalled for the reasons you listed, Democrats should be worried.
As someone who would vote for her, or just about anyone who is not Donald Trump, I hate this.
Pretty sure this post is a Nintendo Switch ad.