So I talked to a PhD who’s work covered civil wars across the world, and asked about this. Turns out there are several signs you need to see which makes a civil war more likely. Most of which we haven’t even gotten close to, because many of them are economic related and right now the US is still the single largest economy in the world where peoples standard of living is still very comfortable.

I asked ChatGPT to describe this and these are the highlights, in order of historical priority?

• Political instability and weak governance are present.
• There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
• The economy is declining with high inequality.
• Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
• External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
• There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
• Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
• Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
• Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
• Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
• The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
• Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.

Note that the US does have some of these, but not to the evident level that you saw in Rwanda, Sudan, Yugoslavia, Syria, Burundi, Eritrea, Somalia, Libya, Myanmar, Haiti, and others. In short, if you look at the indicators, although the US is indeed troubled, it’s not troubled enough for people to hot the streets with more than riotous intent.

Really great explanation! Thanks!

For anyone who wants to support their efforts, they have an active paypal..

The order

In Ukrainian.

We need a video of this, it’s very meme-able.

Really good thoughts. And pontoon bridges or other temporary structures have their limitations.

With that said, I don’t really see S. Korea wanting to invade N. Korea. Short of a radical change in leadership.

Valid historical point, but I am skeptical that Russia of today and and Japan of 1940’s is a close analogy.

Infrastructure, stockpiling, allies, and manufacturing capacity difference mean Russia has a long while yet before we see a total breakdown of air control over the home territory. I won’t say they have air superiority as they seem to be inept at letting some drones through, but it goes to the very different context that Japan had with the US vs Ukraine and it’s limited war vs Russia.

Also the CovertCabal makes clear points backing up the description of not knowing how many rocket artillery are in the field, while acknowledging the various MacGyvered solution they can potentially use.

This whole DPRK troop movement could change many things. Ukraine has done incredible well, but it’s still incredibly over matched if you consider population, economy, resources, and stockpiles. The only balancing factor has been the US & Europe in money and hardware, which has been limited and scaled to the situation which has dragged this out. But war fatigue is setting in and budgets are becoming challenged with election changes. Ukraine may now be able to move militarily with less help, but it still has a huge budget deficit and can barely replace vehicle losses let alone get ahead. Don’t forget about 10 million people fled, so they have a population of about 30 million to Russia, 140ish million. Russia is an order of magnitude larger in GDP. Lots of factors at play, way beyond the morale kills we see and the daily numbers, as heartwarming as they are.

The fat lady has not even stood up to the mic.

For imperial measuring Americans that’s 86,500 square miles which is close to the size of Rhode island (which is itself about 2.27% of the US).

**What they’re saying: **Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), who represents a Hurricane-prone district in South Florida, replied to one of Greene’s posts writing, “NEW FLASH —> Humans cannot create or control hurricanes.”

• “Anyone who thinks they can, needs to have their head examined,” he added – a biting direct rebuke of a fellow House Republican.

Why yes please examine all of our Congressional heads. Also what da fk have they been ingesting? In the word of AvE, focus you f#k!

The comments I come to Lemmy for!