It seems difficult that anyone could make that statement anywhere near definitively until we have quantum computers in our pockets. The real issue with scaling is the binary digital computing paradigm, not the limits of AI/neural network intelligence. In fact, it really depends on how you define “intelligence” and my own research into a unified “theory of everything” indicates that ours as humans is fundamentally repetitive imitation (mimicry). No different than AI learning algorithms, simply more advanced: we have far more neurons than any AI model.

There are options, and a well-funded new player will burst on the scene just as ChatGPT made itself eponymous with language AI: https://open.substack.com/pub/qnfo/p/the-diminishing-returns-of-scaling

AI is synthetic cognition or synthetic knowledge. What we’re calling AGI must “know” the logic of our quantum universe first, which is all but incomprehensible to us.

It’s hard to reason with the inconsistent (sometime nonexistent) human written communication that LLMs know. There’s something deeper in other channels of communication that we use for our own logic.