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Cake day: March 31st, 2022

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  • I admit I’m not a military expert, and this is just stuff that I’ve read that China currently has, but hot damn, this situation is even more serious than I thought, which is saying alot.

    I’ve done a surprising amount of reading about the after effects of nuclear war, and I’m very familiar with that phrase “the lucky ones will die in the first blasts”. My contentions are that different studies say wildly different outcomes. One recent study I found says that over 99 percent of humanity would die, and others I’ve read have said that a nuclear exchange would be more limited and less catastrophic than most people think. But regardless, a burning white hot anger is inside me right now. The fucking fascist Amerikkkan states, why can’t the country just leave the goddamn world alone?



  • I figure that at least some of the U.S. government/bourgeoisie would surrender, at least enough to spare their own lives, and they will need to be hunted down and rooted out over time to prevent their resurgence among the levers of power.

    I’m not saying the U.S. will discover restraint, especially after firing nukes. I’m just stating that at least some of the Amerikkkan imperialists must have a degree of self-preservation to not want to risk the entire globe when they could scatter away and fight later.

    The U.S. Empire is fascist and short-term thinking, but it’s not completely stupid, it’s evil usually makes some kind of twisted sense. It’s better to plan for the worst and hope for the best, but I believe overestimating your enemy is almost as bad as underestimating.




  • I don’t assume that people are always or automatically perfectly rational, and of course timing and emotions and short-term thinking play a huge role as well, and yes, the U.S. using nuclear weapons against Japan was a horrific war crime and wasn’t even necessary or justified, on any level.

    What I am saying is that, when the chips are down, I highly doubt that the capitalists/imperialists/NATO/the Global North/military operators are going to be like:

    Guy 1: “Okay, we sent out dozens of nukes at Beijing and Moscow, and things still aren’t in our favor. Let’s start targeting farms in China, and populated cities and farms and the dams in China next, then Moscow.”

    Guy 2: “Dude, China has fighters, sensors, drones, heat-seeking missiles and deflectors and all kinds of shit surrounding the Three Gorges Dam, and Shanghai and Shenzhen. This is just inviting more and more violence.”

    Guy 1: “That’s CCP propaganda”

    Guy 2: “It’s fucking not! We can’t possibly sustain more launches, and China and Russia are preparing to launch theirs, actually, scratch that, we’re 10 minutes from being destroyed. We have to hope that troops in Ukraine can hold off Russia from-”

    Guy 3: “We’ve gotten orders to suspend missile launches, we gotta move the brass to a different location”


  • Modern nuclear weapons are way more efficient, of course, but the overall payload of most nuclear weapons is way lower than it was during the cold war.

    I know that the destruction of industry and infrastructure, chaos, and loss of lives isn’t in a vacuum, and there is a metric-shit ton of overlap. I never said it was going to be easy or that the loss of life wouldn’t not be tragic.

    I don’t think it’s wishful thinking, it’s what I’ve been reading about China’s technological capability, and Russia to a lesser extent. Again, not saying that China or Russia are invincible, and I think that neoliberals commentators have a huge tendency to downplay or underestimate Russia. Russia is a fucking workhorse, and while it still takes massive effort and loss and labor and resource intensity, keep in mind that the special military operation is relatively small in the grand scheme of things. I figure that Russia’s full potential hasn’t even begun to be utilized or unleashed yet, and Russia is saving it’s best toys and shit for when it truly needs them. The problems in the early phase of the SMO were caused by some combination of corruption and underestimating NATO’s support for Ukraine, but the cuffs are off now. Unless I’m missing something, Russia’s SMO is still only a partial mobilization.

    Imminent potential destruction is one thing that motivates Russia as a whole, for the better part of a century now, roughly speaking.

    I’ve been reading reports about the SMO lately, and I’m continuously surprised by Russia’s thriftiness and multi-faceted approach to countering Ukraine/NATO.

    I don’t claim to be a military expert, and I understand the situation is extremely dire, and I always advocate being prepared and reasonable and assuming the worst, but I think that time and reality is on our side, for now.


  • I really hope you are wrong and/or just being facetious, and I hope my copy paste will help at least somewhat:

    I’m highly skeptical that this conflict would go nuclear. It’s unfortunately always a possibility, and people, especially Amerikkkan imperialists nutjobs, can and will do stupid things without thinking about the actions of their consequences, but my two-fold thinking is that not only is nuclear-war really unlikely to happen (or way less than most people think) I think it would very likely also be less destructive, depending on how things go.

    People always imagine that in a nuclear war scenario, all bets are off, but I don’t think so. There is usually some sense, even in chaos.

    Most or all of the most devastating nuclear weapons were disarmed several decades ago, and the most powerful nuclear weapons today would be able to destroy or damage large cities, even at the most. And yes, there are thousands of nuclear weapons.

    But due to the decreased potency of even the strongest nuclear weapons, and there still being a very finite number, even the capitalists probably understand that an irradiated world would be a terrible place to lord over, even if you survive.

    Nuclear weapons would most likely and would best be used to damage, delay and destroy military and industrial centers, and with how interconnected the world is now because of the internet, gps, cell phones, and supply chains, a country would be way less likely to get involved in combat when it’s industrial bases, bourgeois palaces and military-intelligence strongholds are utterly demolished, out of basic resources and power and labor, things would resolve relatively quickly, pacifying countries out of a fight with relatively few deaths, since there is no point in launching weapons at massive populations centers if it can be helped, since it would just invite more war, death, destruction, disease, sadness, vengeance, danger.

    I can’t speak for the Global North, but I find it hard to believe that those launching nuclear weapons would just shoot them everywhere all over the place at civilians, that would be ridiculously stupid, even in an extreme scenario, all but signing the death warrant of the human species, and targeting civilian and food storehouses and infrastructure would be worse than pointless, it would be stupid.

    I think/hope/imagine that if or when NATO is stupid enough to use nuclear weapons, that China, Russia, Iran, Palestine and the DPRK would already be 20 steps ahead, they have been planning for this for decades.

    China and Russia’s advanced and partially automated and augmented defense systems would scramble, hack into, shut down, disable, redirect, or outright destroy or prevent nuclear missile launches. Drones would hack into and shut down facilities or weapons themselves. Infrastructure could be shielded and damage minimized in various ways, and supply chains are something that Global South understands intuitively more than the Global North.

    I hope it never comes to it, but I think a potential World War 3 would be mostly conventional warfare, and even if it isn’t, a nuclear war wouldn’t mean the death of all or even most of humanity (hopefully) and things would resolve in the Global South’s and socialism’s favor no matter what.