Considering how Russia hasn’t really been reacting to most of what the US and co has done against them, the US likely is confident nothing will come out of it like in most of the other times they did things against Russia, thus, the US will probably escalate this within days. Like many of the other times.
I do wonder how much China, and others, are profiting with this since they can deliver more things between Asia and Europe faster than anyone else. And more importantly, how well is the blockade working in making things expensive for the colonialist entity.
After some searching online it takes about 40% longer for ships to get there while being serviced by smaller ships that take the cargo from Mediterranean ports to there, but I couldn’t find the actual increase in cost.
I think there will come a time- if we’re not there already- where Russia (and China, Iran, etc) will have to question if playing it cool, and avoiding escalation on their part, is actually serving their interests of reducing escalation overall- or if it is just emboldening the west to push further and further than it ever would have if it had been properly cowed in the first place.
Considering western response to the Yemenis blockading western shipping it does seem like force can get them to stop. If everyone did it at once they may lash out, but perhaps if it’s more gradual it may be possible to stop them.
I think they probably need a lot of AA first to defend themselves from aggression.
Can’t blame only him considering the fact that Russia does nothing against it when the US is know for escalation.
It’s not good to blame the victim but when the victim does have the power to do something about it but does nothing it just makes things worse for everyone else as the agressor will take it as an invitation and double down against them and everyone else too.
I guess we will see where this leads us but I’m not sure this path is as good as one that had some resistance.
Russia has been doing a very good job so far of making everyone forget they can use nukes so I’m not really counting on them doing anything regarding this strike or the next few until things get really bad, at which point it may be useless anyway.
Would like to be wrong, or that Russia at least has a good reason to be doing things so meekly, but I guess time will tell.
I disagree a little with the 5 years part as I can see a small chance of “a collapse” happening within that time, but as for the 30 years part it seems possible too.
As they have to steal ever more from their own populations and can steal less from the Global South they will become weaker and fractured, and if, for example, this happens in some parts before others it can lead to fascism in some countries in Europe which might see their neighbors in better shape as enemies, potentially leading to western infighting and an acceleration of their own collapse.
Hopefully such a scenario the conflicts stay internal instead of going global and they only weaken themselves while the rest of the world prosper. And in such a scenario we could even see Global Sout countries with enough power to massively influence western countries perhaps even leading to imperialism against them as the Global South is unlikely to go communist so fast.
Other scenarios might be more plausible though…
Hopefully this leads to things finally not only stabilizing but also impoving for Cuba in a concrete and sustainable way.
And from some quick online search it seems this well might be the oil deficit of the country by a few percent, so there is still a lot of work to be done but it is a good start/continuation of their development.
I know Medvedev said the french troops would be considered as elite fighters and would be priority to be hit without any chance of returning the bodies home. But I don’t know what Putin said.
Perhaps my info on this was a little old, and seeing as my country might be one of the few to not have mass starvation in such a scenario, according to one of the studies I saw, I might have also been too optimistic about other countries’ chances.
It seems nuclear winter could lead to an 8 degree maximum drop in temperature with a 4 degree drop after a decade and lasting a while. Perhaps. So, much worse than climate change at the current time.
Although I do still wonder about how close to reality the soot modeling is due to possible new materials and differences from countries, which might make a big difference on the actual result, either for better or worse.
Nuclear winter could actually be a bonus considering the changing climate, so with possible diminushing trade to the imperialist core, specially if they nuke the periphery on their attempt to cling to power, the Global South might only have a bad, but not horrible year, before things improve for the average person.
Although I doubt it would go as smoothly as that.
How long until some of them get found out and hit by cruise missiles though?
Even if they “don’t fight” they are still targets. And from what Russia has said, they are likely big targets.
Although Russia says there are over 3,100 mercenaries in Ukraine, these newly arriving troops are not mercenaries. They are in uniform, home country proclaimed via insignia. They mostly are concentrated in the western part of the country, although in some cases they are close to the actual fighting in the east.
According to this there are already NATO troops in Ukraine. Any more sources on this? I don’t remember hearing about it to such a degree before.
Why is it phrased with such an emphasis on the “own people”?
If they don’t say the “own” part this argument quickly gets used against the west, so as a means to dissociate their murderous regimes that mostly kill people in other countries from other countries they probably began using this argument like this as it wasn’t shot down as much and it stuck. Perhaps.
And that’s only the cotst of defence. I don’t think we know yet how much actual damage there was and if Iran managed to destroy just one air defence system this price tag could possibly double.
It would be very interesting to see Germany get couped, leading it to be more subservient to the US and leading to its, and Europe’s, faster breakdown.
I wonder if they will go for the jugular, like attacking refineries, power plants, ports and perhaps the seat of goverment, or if they will limit it to military targets only. Although if they go for the economic targets things could escalate a lot more than if they only attack a few military bases.
Does no one remember Laos?
Either way, the more the better!
Even if that port doesn’t matter the blockade is still taking the colonialist entity from being along the route between Asia and Europe to being at the tail end of a new and much longer route with smaller throughput.
Are there as many ships going there now that ships are in smaller supply and the nearby countries could all be served by Chinese/Russian or even their own ships going straight through the Suez? I don’t know the numbers exactly but I doubt it’s something they can just brush off.
It might not fall overnight but a quick devaluation of the dollar, perhaps with big US tech companies losing value due to Chinese ones and with big countries pushing for other currencies, followed by a successful military attack against the US or their interests when they can’t do anything about it could scare people away of the dollar and break it enough in a week though.
But anyway, I guess will see how it goes down. But down it will go.