The blackout itself is an initiative by the community. However, from June 30th third party apps will no longer work, and many users (and moderators of many large subs) have explicitly said that they aren’t interested in continuing with the official Reddit app or site. This will cause a huge chunk of reddit users to leave. Some will go back, some won’t. Besides that, it’s a matter of principle. They’re choosing stakeholders over users.

The protest will be temporary for some subreddits, but indefinite for others. I don’t think that Reddit Inc. will accept the demands; instead it might force the subreddits to open again.

But in the medium- or the long-term, Reddit is over. I don’t think that the platform will recover from that. Even the ones left behind will be less eager to contribute with it, so there’ll be less content, so less encouragement to browse it, thus less content, in a downwards spiral.

“My drill is the drill that’s gonna pierce the heavens!” - Simon.

“My drill is the drill that’ll bury Reddit into hell!” - Steve “Pigboy” Huffman.

For most subreddits it is temporary blackout but some communities like one of the piracy subreddits I saw completely packed bags and the mods moved to lemmy. It’s too early to say if reddit is over or if this is just a temporary setback. Reddit may even concede and revert some of their api changes to appease the populace. Simply put, we don’t know enough yet.

Inertia is a thing, both in a positive and negative way. What I mean by that is, you can reach a threshold where people are leaving fast enough that Reddit will lose more people than not (positive from our current point of view).

The other way it works is people are just so used to Reddit and the habit returns quickly once the blackout is over (negative from our point of view).

Which way will this go? My pessimistic outlook is that tons of people are exploring Lemmy/KBin/whatever fediverse thing now while they have a Reddit sized hole in their daily routines, but once Reddit is back they will go back there. I think this is shown in how Twitter users bailed off pretty hard at first and Mastodon got a bunch of new people but those people slowly went back to Twitter. Some people will stay at the new place for sure, but a lot won’t. None of that is really a problem per se, either.

Some mods are permanently or “indefinitely” closing, some are opening their subs back up tomorrow.

People here are on board with Reddit being over; that’s why many of them have jumped ship to new best friend Lemmy.

But, like, digg.com still exists. Only time will tell where if anywhere will really become the next place to be, or if Reddit will somehow recover its coolness.