“I watched the vigilantfox video, but I don’t understand the refutation to correlation/causation.”

I haven’t listened to that one in a while. One drop in annocean of info. So let me see if I can find some time to do so and get back with you.

Alternatively, you could reach out to Mr. Dowd and ask him to clarify. Or read and consume more of his work to see if he does so more satisfactorily for you elsewhere. He has done many interviews and released a lot of data. He’s an intelligent man who wagers large sums of money on this stuff for a living and has been quite successful in predictive markets.